Bienvenue dans la septième édition des 10 tendances en Asset Management. En cette fin d'année 2023, les bouleversements subis par le secteur au cours des dernières années se sont multipliés : fin d’une hausse des rendements continue depuis plus de 15 ans, taux d’intérêts au plus haut, forte l'inflation, tensions géopolitiques croissantes et impact révolutionnaire de l'intelligence artificielle (IA) générative. A l'approche de 2024, les gestionnaires d'actifs - comme chacun d'entre nous – prendront des résolutions pour l'année à venir. Cette démarche requiert d'avoir une vision des grandes tendances à venir, et nous vous présentons nos 10 prévisions pour 2024.
10 TENDANCES POUR LA GESTION D'ACTIFS EN 2024
1. La poursuite de l’âge d'or du crédit privé
Les fonds de crédit privés ont prospéré en répondant aux besoins importants de financement des opérations de capital-investissement post-COVID. Dans un futur proche, la nouvelle règlementation bancaire (par exemple, la fin de Bale III – B3E) accentuera la "dé-bancarisation" vers les fonds de crédit privés, le financement privé étant moins lucratif pour les banques. Les fonds de crédit privés se développeront au-delà des opérations à effet de levier, dans des domaines plus larges comme le prêt aux entreprises ou l’adossement du financement à des actifs. Ces développements nécessiteront un renforcement significatif des capacités d'octroi des actifs ou par des partenariats avec les banques pour trouver des financements adossés à des actifs. Bien que favorable aux acteurs du crédit privé en général, les plus grands bénéficiaires de cette tendance seront ceux qui ont - ou peuvent construire - une capacité opérationnelle importante pour être compétitif. La rapidité et la validation de l'exécution de l’octroi, la taille accrue des transactions et la capacité d'apporter plus de valeur aux partenariats joueront en faveur des grandes entreprises.
2. La course aux 2 000 milliards de dollars de liquidités
As yields plateau, asset managers will have a massive opportunity to lure investors away from cash, which will require developing new (or tweaking existing) products to compete effectively across a range of different needs. Those in retirement, or soon facing it, will favor income-generating products that replace and augment the stable cash flows that tightening rates created. Macro calls on rate dynamics will underpin a revitalization in active fixed income management, appealing to investors looking to diversify into non-equity sources of alpha. Equity managers will add more downside protection, gently reacquainting still-skittish investors with risk. Structured notes and bond ladders will come back into fashion, and group-owned asset managers will design systematic investing programs that push cash-rich clients into new investments.
3. L'assurance, de tout, partout, tout le temps
Les gestionnaires alternatifs poursuivront la recherche active des différentes méthodes pour entrer dans le secteur de la gestion d'actifs d'assurance - qu'il s'agisse d'acheter des plateformes d'assurance, d'investir puis de gérer des actifs « sidecar », ou d'améliorer l'infrastructure de leur modèle opérationnel pour mieux servir les assureurs. Y compris en offrant des solutions holistiques d'externalisation du directeur des investissements (OCIO). Les succès des pionniers du marché seront toutefois difficiles à reproduire, car ces derniers disposent d’un avantage dans les nouvelles opportunités commerciales et dans les investissements « asset-intensive » tels que les rentes fixes. Les arbitrages sur le capital ou des taxes deviendront moins différenciateurs, et la hausse du rendement des actifs privés ou alternatifs est supplantée par la concurrence. L'exploration de nouveaux types de passifs, de zones géographiques moins bien desservies et d'actifs à rendement plus élevé fera de plus en plus partie du cahier des charges.
4. Knowing where the “good” and “bad” costs are
After years of trying to rein in costs to address the fragility in operating models, managers will focus less on cutting overall costs, but instead look to invest in the “good” costs and rigorously root out the “bad.” Managers will embrace the “good” costs that create differentiated client value (for example, honing the alpha generation engine, up-tiering the distribution delivery model, expanding functional service capabilities), and ruthlessly prune costs that do not (for example, exiting subscale business lines, reducing “optionality,” outsourcing trading, streamlining product offerings). Simply classifying what’s “good” or “bad” won’t be enough, however. Firms will double down on efforts to understand the details of their cost profile, which will mean developing fully allocated, front-to-back views of costs across organizational, product and client silos. Armed with this transparency, managers will take bolder actions to align their spend with where and how it delivers client value.
5. Japan's rising market potential
Japan is transforming into an asset management-led nation as the government begins an ambitious reform to introduce competition to the domestic market. Japan is a huge opportunity with $5 trillion in assets under management (AUM) and trillions of dollars locked in low-yielding bank deposits despite record market highs. It can also serve as a strategic onshore location for serving Asia amidst the geopolitical challenges with China. The opportunity for alternative managers is particularly attractive, not only as a new source of originations, but also as a place to take their insurance playbooks and tap into local insurers’ needs to enhance their reinsurance strategies, address asset-liability mismatches, and support underwriting growth.
6. Tale of two ESG camps
The anti-ESG backlash, underperformance, enhanced regulatory scrutiny, and persistent fund outflows have raised questions about the “sustainability” of current ESG products. To better meet evolving client needs, those committed to ESG products will bifurcate into two clear camps. The first and bigger will move further towards broad integration of ESG factors into existing mandates and a high degree of customization based on client preferences (for example, using direct indexing). The second camp will increase focus on real world impact through differentiated offerings such as sustainable thematic investing and impact funds that more clearly define and track desired outcomes for investors. This latter camp will benefit from favorable demand trends (for example, average net flows for climate-specific funds were 19% versus 2% for all ESG funds over the last year), increasingly taking share in the market.
7. Ramping up product research and development
Chronic inattention to innovative product development has left asset managers drowning in dormant back books of investment strategies no longer suitable for 21st century investor demands. Product research and development groups, better organized as stand-alone functions bridging portfolio management and distribution, will arm themselves with new talent — including strategy, finance, corporate development and technology practitioners. Data and AI will help these new teams measure demand and assess potential rivals, rapidly narrowing ideas to the most launchable, scalable and profitable strategies, allowing them to generate “innovation alpha.” The thinking will also shift from traditional funds to developing offerings based on newer technologies like tokenization, direct indexing and other innovative fund structures that can broaden the applicable investor base.
8. Personalized models go upmarket
Model portfolios have long been a solution for US affluent investors but have met advisor resistance for being too tax inefficient, simplistic and “retail” for high-net-worth (HNW) clients. This stance will soften as advances in chief investment officer (CIO) office sophistication, optimization engines, separately managed accounts (SMA) model delivery, unified managed account (UMA) reporting and alternative investments technology, usher in the age of “Models 2.0.” These models will finally deliver customized, HNW solutions from standardized parts at scale, creating opportunities for asset managers to compete with wealth manager home offices. While the US leads this transition, it will increasingly serve as a useful template for other geographies to follow.
9. Let’s trade private markets
Innovation in semi-liquid structures (business development companies — BDCs, interval and tender offer funds, ELTIFs — Europe long-term investment funds, LTAFs — Long-term asset funds) and fund administration technology has democratized access to private markets in the wealth channel. All signs are pointing to this “liquification” trend gathering pace in the institutional market as well. Most notably, interest in limited partner (LP) secondaries and the emergence of net asset value (NAV-based) lending has exploded as return of capital slows and investors seek liquidity. Market infrastructure providers will turbocharge the “liquification” of private markets further by partnering with asset owners, secondary fund managers and general partners (GPs) to create marketplaces that overcome historical data concerns, making private markets transactions more transparent and efficient.
10. Deal-making and integration playbooks get bolder
In the past, achieving scale was often the motivating force for mergers and acquisitions (M&A); more recently the rationale has shifted to filling capability gaps, particularly in private markets. We expect this to continue, but the new era will be marked by two key trends: wider-spread private equity-led consolidation and bolder post-deal integration playbooks. On the latter, firms will eschew the old “hands off” dogma stemming from fear of “upsetting” the acquiree’s principals. This will mean more intentional integration of the operating platform and the distribution engine to drive efficiencies, more unification of branding strategies, and a greater focus on working with future generations (not just past owners) to underpin the long-term success of the acquisition.
Publié initialement en décembre 2023. Nos auteurs souhaitent remercier Christian Edelmann, Adam Khadra, Jasper Yip, Vlad Gil, Bradley Kellum, Kristin Ricci et Anuj Gupta pour leurs contributions majeures.